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    上半年21區域發展指數:西部排名最高東北最低
      中國城市文化網  時間:2017-8-29    www.tztmbx.com  來源:21世紀經濟報道    收藏本頁

    21世紀經濟研究院研究發現,今年上半年21區域發展指數最高的是西部地區,為7.75%,其次是中部、東部,東北最低。西部地區區域發展指數比較高,前十名中有六名為西部地區。很多經濟增速較高的地區今年指數較低,這些地區需要加快轉型。

    上半年區域經濟哪里最好?

    21世紀經濟研究院研究發現,今年上半年21區域發展指數最高的是西部地區,為7.75%,其次是中部、東部,東北最低。

    21區域發展指數采用規模以上工業增速、投資增速、社會消費品零售額增速、一般公共預算收入增速、第三產業增速等來測算各地的經濟走勢,其權重分別占20%、10%、20%、20%、30%。第三產業之所以權重最大,是因為全國服務業比重已超過50%。

    總體而言,今年上半年西部地區區域發展指數比較高,前十名中有六名為西部地區,包括西藏、新疆、貴州、云南、寧夏、陜西,指數均為8%以上。中部的湖北,東部的廣東、河北分別位居上半年21區域發展指數的全國第八、第九、第十位。排名靠后的地方有青海、天津、吉林、甘肅、遼寧等地。

    很多經濟增速較高的地區反而指數較低,顯示這些地區需要加快轉型,避免陷入經濟驅動力過于單一的局面。

    前十名多半是西部地區

    測算發現,今年上半年21區域發展指數最高的是西部,平均值為7.75%;其次為中部,指數為7.18%;東部為6.33%;東北最低,為2.08%。

    上半年21區域發展指數第一、二、三名是西藏、新疆和貴州,指數分別為17.68%、11.97%、8.43%,均位于中國的西南或西北地區(西藏第二和第三產業數據尚未公布,本報告均采取10%的保守預估數據)。西部還有云南、寧夏、陜西指數分別位列第五、六、七名。

    需要注意的是,今年上半年21區域發展指數排名靠前的地區均是西部邊遠地區,比如西藏、新疆、貴州、云南、寧夏等地。這些地區人均GDP(地區生產總值)和居民可支配收入均在全國不高,屬于欠發達地區。在東部地區快速轉型的情況下,西部邊遠地區能承接更多的沿海地區產業,實現跨越式發展。很多地區由于經濟總量低,往往上一兩個項目就可以快速拉動經濟增長。

    西藏的一般公共預算收入、規模以上工業增速、社會消費品零售額增速三項指標排第一。新疆今年上半年投資增速為24.6%,為全國第一,是全國增速的約3倍。

    新疆上半年一般公共預算收入增速為34.5%,出口增速為42.8%(人民幣計算),分別位居全國第二、第四。今年上半年新疆經濟增速為7.2%,排名為十五名以后,但是上述原因使得新疆的21區域發展指數排名第二。

    貴州上半年規模以上工業增速第三、投資增速第二,第三產業增速和社會消費品零售額增速第二,導致其21區域發展指數第三。云南今年上半年一般預算收入增速第四、投資增速增速第四、社會消費品零售額增速第四,使得其21區域發展指數排第五。

    海南今年上半年經濟增速并不高,只有7.5%,但是區域發展指數排名靠前,與多項數據較高有關。比如上半年海南一般預算收入增速為19.2%,為全國第三。

    也有的地方經濟發展快,但是指數并不高。比如重慶上半年經濟增速為10.5%,全國第二,但是21區域發展指數只是全國第17位,原因是一般公共預算收入增速為7.1%,影響了總排名。

    中部地區除了湖南以外,其余地區上半年21區域發展指數均為7%以上。湖南今年上半年21區域發展指數為全國第21位,與一般公共預算收入只有5.7%有關。

    東部地區的區域發展指數分化大,有4個省高于7%,為福建、廣東、海南、河北。但是也有比較低的,比如天津低于4%。東北部地區上半年發展指數均低于6%,這表明3年多來東北振興仍待取得實質性突破。

    21世紀經濟研究院將21區域發展指數景氣區間分為5個形態:小于0反映經濟過冷,0-5%反映趨冷;5%-10%反映穩定;10%-15%為趨熱;15%以上為過熱。上半年全國有20多個省市自治區經濟為穩定狀態。

    今年上半年經濟過冷的地區有甘肅和遼寧,21區域發展指數分別為-0.55%和-1.94%。兩地今年上半年投資增速分別為-36.3%、-31.4%,為全國較慢的地區。兩地工業增速分別為1.9%、-4.3%,也在全國較低,這與兩地經濟增速在全國排名靠后的情況一致。

    吉林、天津、青海、江蘇上半年21區域發展指數低于5%。吉林和天津今年上半年一般公共預算收入增速分別為-0.9%、3.7%,在全國倒數第一、第四。天津曾經濟增速為全國第一,今年上半年投資和工業減速明顯。

    資源大省需加快轉型

    從今年上半年區域發展指數看,資源大省表現搶眼,這些地區需要加快轉型。

    21區域發展指數第二到第七名之間的新疆、貴州、云南、寧夏、陜西,均是能源大省,傳統煤炭、水電產業等比重較大。

    在傳統的資源大省中,山西、內蒙古未能進入前十名。山西今年上半年21區域發展指數為全國第11位,達到7.53%。山西經濟增速為6.9%,多年來首次追平全國經濟增速。內蒙古因為要解決環保問題,煤炭調出受限,經濟獲益不大,今年上半年區域發展指數為5.27%,在全國靠后。不過,新疆、山西今年上半年社會消費品零售總額增速分別為7%、6.6%,在全國為倒數前幾名,表明這兩個地區經濟活力仍待提升。

    資源大省今年上半年經濟良好,與今年煤炭、鋼鐵等價格上升快有關。另外,全國加快解決可再生能源的棄風棄水棄光問題,很多地區電力加快外送,從中受益很大,云南、寧夏均是代表。

    成也蕭何,敗也蕭何。今日資源大省可能受益于資源價格上升,明日可能因為煤炭價格下跌拖累經濟。國家今年公布煤電供給側結構性改革的意見,提出“十三五”煤電要壓減1.5億千瓦的產能,相應未來煤炭需求可能會下降。在煤炭價格下跌后,這些地區經濟可能再面臨新的結構調整,因此這些地區仍需尋找新的經濟動力。

    很多重化工業比重較大的地區,包括東北三省以及甘肅、天津、江蘇,也應該加快轉型。這些地區今年上半年21區域發展指數在全國靠后。

    天津和江蘇過去多年經濟增速較快,今年上半年兩地第二產業增速分別為5.4%、6.3%,服務業增速均為8.3%,工業拖了經濟后腿(分別為5.6%、5.5%,工業占第二產業大頭)。

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