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    農民工與城市化
      時間:2010-2-2      來源:經濟觀察報    編輯:admin【字體: 】【收藏】【關閉
      

            我們最近在國內做了幾次非常詳細的調查,包括對農民工的調查。我希望通過我們做的調查得到的一些微觀數據來討論一下關于我們中國宏觀的問題。

            在中國對農民工的調查基本上全是社會學家做的,好像經濟學家對這個題目不是特別感興趣。從傳統上來講,農民工的問題被認為是一個社會問題,權益保障的問題。在我看來,實際上中國農民工現象的出現對中國宏觀經濟有極大的影響。中國統計局在2008年底做的統計顯示,中國現在有2.3億的農民工。我們通過調查表明,中國農民工對中國的產出起著巨大的作用,但是他們的消費增長速度卻非常慢。如果要討論中國經濟結構的失衡,農民工的經濟狀況在此起了非常關鍵的作用。

            宏觀經濟學家對中國內需不足有兩個解釋:一個是強調中國的儲蓄率,另一個是強調中國的發展。

            提到農民工就會牽扯到城市化。如果看中國城市化指標就會發現,2000年是一個拐點,而恰恰是2000年,也是另外一個拐點,也就是中國家庭消費占GDP的比例一直在下降。這個非常有意思。我們一般會認為城市化帶來的是中產階級壯大,帶來的是收入的增長,帶來的是消費的增加。但是從中國宏觀城市化的數據和宏觀消費數據看到的狀況恰恰是相反的。我會對這個問題作詳細的解釋。

            世界上曾經有這樣一個國家,這個國家有下列特征:政府儲備率在6年之內增加了一倍,基尼系數是4.5,工資增長嚴重落后于生產率的增長,大企業里75%的資產是國企,政治上是沒有競爭的,對外資非常開放,非常歡迎。這是哪個國家?GDP增長速度是多少?

            是中國嗎?不是。這是上世紀60年代的巴西,1968-1974年巴西的GDP增長每年11.4%,但整個1980年代是停滯不前,即所謂丟失的十年。像巴西這種國家,1950年代的時候人均GDP就相當于我們的臺灣省、韓國的兩倍,到現在大概連三分之一都不到,1990年代有多次金融危機不穩定,經濟發展速度放慢,政治上也不穩定。巴西在上世紀60年代,有些方面和中國是相當相似的。而且巴西當時被外資看好,被認為是“經濟奇跡”。這些用詞今天都被用于中國。中國經濟最大挑戰是消費和內需的下降。

            很多人認為中國的消費占GDP的比例低是因為我們東亞文化強調儲蓄,韓國和日本這兩個國家也是東亞,也是有東亞文化的,它們的消費占GDP的比例遠遠比我們中國高。雖然今年消費官方數據很好,社會零售增加了15%,遠遠超過GDP的增長。但是中國的統計數據是很復雜的,中國的社會零售一部分是家庭消費,一部分是機構消費。在這方面我找不到特別好的數字,所以我自己去查中國統計局的關于農民和城鎮居民的收支調查,用它的收支調查數據跟官方的比例做比較。機構消費差不多是整個零售消費的25%,而在1980年代為10%,到了1990年代,機構消費占整個零售消費大大增加。

            我自己很懷疑15%里邊有多少真正是家庭消費。從過去歷史的數據來看,機構消費在整個消費中占的比例非常大。再解釋中國消費下降的問題,一種理論認為,是謹慎性的儲蓄和社會保險不足造成的;另外一種理論認為,謹慎型的消費主要是因為收入過低,而不是因為儲蓄過高。我自己比較贊成第二種觀點,也就是說中國消費下降是因為中國國民收入的增長嚴重落后于GDP的增長。很多其他第三世界國家,消費比例都比中國要高15%-20%左右。那些第三世界并不是有很發達的社會保險體制——印度沒有一個特別好的社會保險機制,但是消費占GDP的比例卻相當高。

            這是國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的兩份報告,第一個報告認為儲蓄過高,他們展現的數據表明中國城鎮儲蓄從15%上升到2005年的23%。另外一份IMF報告認為,即使你考慮到儲蓄率上升的話,也只能解釋消費下降8%其中的1%。也就是即使考慮這個也不能全面解釋消費的下降。

            第一份IMF報告對儲蓄的算法里頭有一些稍微復雜的問題。它的算法是儲蓄等于可支配收入減去消費支出。如果你要看美國國民核算統計數據,是個人儲蓄等于個人收入減去個人支出,“個人支出=個人消費支出+個人利息支付+個人轉移支出”。IMF采納了對消費非常窄的定義,如果不采取這個定義,采取美國定義的話,可能會得出另外一個結論。

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